SCwatch

Anwar Ibrahim appears to be taking quite a bit of stick for ‘lecturing’ Lim Guan Eng on the finer points of behaving like a Finance Minister.

The vitriol and emotion were far more than I had expected.

But quite honestly, aren’t they all playing to the gallery?

Tun M is the trail blazer…..Lim Guan Eng, the mop up operator…..and Anwar Ibrahim is portraying himself as the calming factor.

Calming factor to what, you may ask?

Well, I think that calming factor is in the form of preparing the groundwork for the STINGING CHARGES that are to be brought against Najib……provided he is not successful in absconding!

So keep cool and stay tuned!

Have you ever noticed over the last few elections that there were always several ‘big corporate deals’ announced just prior to the general elections?

The reasons for them? Well, you speculate!

In any case, one of them was the acquisition of 55% of Kretam Holdings Berhad for RM1.18 billion by Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Berhad.

If the deal had gone through, it would have made Kretam controlling shareholder, Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang, a very, very rich man. Freddy’s background goes back to being a runner for Jeffery Kitingan when the latter was chairman of Sabah Foundation, that controlled the timber rich resources of Sabah then. Was reliably told that he had been detained by the authorities before for some sabotage!

In any case, the deal has been CALLED OFF. Click HERE

But what was surprising was that the reason given for calling off the deal was due to the UNSATISFACTORY OUTCOME OF THE DUE DILIGENCE carried out on Kretam.

This implies that the financial statements of Kretam including its audited accounts did NOT reflect the true and fair status of the company.

And this really is the tip of the iceberg with respect to whether the regulators had adequately looked into the matter.

Was the due diligence failure just an excuse for Hap Seng to get out of the deal…..especially with the GE14 results changing the status quo?

Looking the other way again, regulators?

Not too long ago, Tun Daim was quoted as saying that there were also ‘many other little 1MDBs and if put together, they are big…..very big’.

The question then is how these little 1MDBs could manifest if the regulators and watchdogs have kept saying that everything is alright?

This is not a question whereby the regulators were unaware of the wrong doing taking place. Nor were they told NOT to look into those matters. In any case, did they get these instructions in writing.

The sad fact to all these ‘OVERSIGHTS’ is that these sorry Regulators decided to LOOK THE OTHER WAY…….and when governance issues were highlighted to them by their underlings, they were told in no uncertain terms to change those findings!

This becomes a critical issue for those regulators that hold a critical position in the country’s regulatory structure e.g. Bank Negara Malaysia, MACC, Securities Commission Malaysia etc.

Peer pressure cannot be used as an excuse. If wrongdoings are highlighted, these regulatory heads are obliged to raise them and put them on record…….NOT LOOK THE OTHER WAY.

The Pakatan Harapan Ministers in the respective Ministries have their work cut out for them…..in carving out these HANGERS ON, who do not have any legitimacy to hold the position that they have currently!

With over a month since the change in the Malaysian Government, the euphoria appears to be still prevailing….as most Malaysians need to see Najib and his cronies held to account for nearly bringing the country down to its knees!

The general perception about the voting trend was that the ‘Malay tsunami’ took place that swept the corrupt Barisan Nasional to oblivion.

But did it really take place?

There are even claims that UMNO obtained over 50% of the Malay votes and that it was the non Malays (read: Chinese) who have usurped power!

So has that really been proven or rebutted.

I am therefore making an attempt to ascertain the proportion of Malay votes that went to Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and PAS.

I am setting out the parameters and the variables and am open to challenge and correction with respect to those figures.

To begin with, a noticeable feature of GE14 was that the details of the racial composition of the voters in each constituency was NOT revealed.

Only details that were revealed by the likes of Merdeka’s survey and news media were as follows:-

• UMNO led BN obtained 36% of the total number of eligible voters
• PAS won 14% of the votes…presumably in Kelantan, Terengganu and maybe Kedah……safe to say most of their voters were Malays!
• This means Pakatan Harapan won the balance 50% or just under as confirmed by most ‘analysts’.
• Analysts also said that 92% and 88% of Chinese and Indians respectively voted for Pakatan Harapan (let’s average it to 90% lah).

Now with the above data reported, do we have the racial composition of the voters during GE14?

The answer is NO. Neither do we have the racial composition of those who came out to vote.

This is where an assumption needs to be put in place i.e. the racial composition of the 14 million voters in GE14 is similar to the estimated racial demographics of the Malaysian population as follows:-

1. Malays – 49%
2. Other bumiputras – 12% (predominantly in East Malaysia)
3. Chinese – 21%
4. Indians – 7%
5. Others – 1%
6. Non citizens – 10% (these comprise foreign workers where half are illegal)

Presuming that (6) ie Non citizens cannot vote (e.g. Bangladeshi workers…sounds familiar?), then the balance 90% can vote.

So for the Malays comprising 49% of the total population, that percentage out of eligible voters now become 54.4% (i.e. [49 divided by 90] multiply by 100). This would apply to the other communities too as follows:

1. Malays – 54.4%
2. Other Bumiputeras – 13.3%
3. Chinese – 23.3%
4. Indians – 7.8%
5. Others – 1.1%

The above would total 100%.

Now, I am going to work ‘backward’ based on the 36% (BN), 50% (PH) and 14% (PAS) votes attributed to the respective parties:-

PAS – It is safe to assume that PAS’s 14% of the votes came predominantly from the Malays

PH – Pakatan Harapan’s 50% was derived from approximately 90% of Chinese and Indian votes which works out to 28% (i.e. [23.3 plus 7.8] x 90%). The other Bumiputeras in East Malaysia, I counted and approximately 50% voted for PH. Applying the same percentage on the 1.1% attributed to others, then Pakatan Harapan got 7.2% (i.e. [13.3 plus 1.1] x 50%). This means that the Malay votes that went to Pakatan Harapan is 14.8% (i.e. 50% less [28% plus 7.2%])

BN – Based on the above percentages, if 10% of Chinese and Indian votes AND 50% of Other Bumiputeras and Others went to BN, this would work out in total to 10.31%    (i.e. 3.11 plus 7.2%). Now if Barisan Nasional obtained 36% of the votes, this means that the Malay votes that went to BN was 25.69% (i.e. 36% less 10.31%)

So there you have it…..the Malays that make up 54.4% of eligible voters voted for the following parties:-

1. Barisan Nasional – 25.69%
2. Pakatan Harapan – 14.8%
3. PAS – 14%

Is it no wonder that Tun M and AI have to be threading carefully post GE14?

I’m back…..and it’s great to be back since my last post which was soon after GE13 in 2013.

Quite honestly, I was resigned to the thought that the UMNO led BN would somehow get its majority in the Malaysian Parliament especially with the gerrymandering, disproportionate representation in the seats be they state or parliament and suspected rigging of the votes.

However, just prior to the elections, I commented to my wife that in the 2008 GE12 elections, the Pak Lah led BN government lost its two thirds majority in Parliament in addition to losing the two richest states of Selangor and Penang …… primarily due to the Rakyat’s resentment to the steep increase in the petrol prices plus the nonsense by his son in law and the ‘Fourth Floor’ boys.

As such, in this GE14 elections, with the 1MDB fiasco at full play PLUS the marked increase in the costs of living made worse with the introduction of GST, I remarked to my wife that the Rakyat would be livid and the swing to the Opposition should be stronger!

And lo and behold I was proven right much to my wife’s pleasant surprise….we’ve got a new government!!

This result has provided me with the impetus to revive my two bit contribution to all and sundry with my side of view to issues of interest!